- Alabama fans used to wear buttons that read: BEAT EVERYONE. Kalen DeBoer’s first team deserves a rebrand.
- Alabama football vs. Missouri is a playoff elimination game.
- Georgia might not be the team to beat, but it’s a team to beat.
Welcome to the No. 1 spot in the US LBM Coaches Poll, Oregon. Watch your step. The footing’s awfully slippery this college football season, even for those with webbed feet.
By the time it stopped raining water bottles Saturday in Austin, Texas, the Longhorns were no longer unblemished, Georgia had restored its honor, and Alabama already lost. Again.
As Week 8 faded into the night, “The Eyes of Texas” struck a somber tone, while the three I’s – Iowa State, Indiana and Illinois – boast records better than the Script A.
Here’s what’s left lingering on my mind:
After loss at Tennessee, is Alabama finished as a College Football Playoff contender?
No.
Mark this under the category of two things can be true at once.
The facts: In the three weeks since Alabama beat Georgia, the Crimson Tide haven’t resembled a playoff team. It lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee and wriggled off the hook against South Carolina.
More facts: Historically, the playoff selection committee salivates over Alabama. Also, the Crimson Tide’s win against Georgia ranks among the nation’s most-impressive victories, joining Georgia’s win at Texas, Oregon’s win vs. Ohio State, and Vanderbilt’s win against Alabama.
No. 15 Alabama (5-2) dazzled in the first half against Georgia, in front of a raucous home crowd, while the Bulldogs had a full-fledged meltdown. Neither team looks the same since then, and it’s now obvious that imperfections riddle Alabama.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe contributed six turnovers these past three games. That won’t do. Any hope of Alabama qualifying for the playoff depends on Milroe driving the wagon, not anchoring it.
Two-loss teams will crowd the playoff bubble. If Alabama rallies to 10-2, it retains a shot at selection, and its win against Georgia might look even better by then.
A 10-2 record wouldn’t be enough to qualify No. 17 Missouri (6-1). Texas A&M already demolished Missouri, which drew one of the SEC’s easiest schedules.
So, when Alabama hosts the Tigers on Saturday, consider it a playoff-elimination game.
Neither Alabama nor Missouri aces the evaluation for what we’d normally consider a playoff team, but we’re not fine-tuned at evaluating the “last team in” for a 12-team field. Within an expanded playoff, not every qualifier will resemble 2020 Alabama or 2022 Georgia.
The Tide, for much of the season, have done well just to look better than 2007 Alabama, the 7-6 team from Nick Saban’s first season – and we don’t yet have a playoff big enough that would house the ’07 Tide.
Alabama fans used to wear pins that read: BEAT EVERYONE.
That mentality suited Saban’s dynasty, but I’m envisioning a rebrand for this team: BEAT ANYONE. PLEASE.
By beating Texas, did Georgia re-establish itself as the team to beat?
No, Georgia is not the team to beat, because no indefatigable force exists.
We’ve grown accustomed to everyone chasing one or two super teams. Alabama provided that team throughout Nick Saban’s dynasty. Then, Kirby Smart turned Georgia into that team.
This season breaks the mold. A super team has not emerged. Georgia’s defense looked super against Texas. Its offense did just enough.
I could argue Georgia is the national championship front-runner. I also could make compelling cases for Oregon and Ohio State, which have better-performing offenses than Georgia’s.
Georgia’s 30-15 thumping of Texas established that the Bulldogs, like a few other teams, are talented enough to win the national championship. The performance stopped short of establishing that it’s Georgia’s to lose.
Championship-contender tiers are emerging. On that top tier are, in the order of your choosing, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and … Texas.
The first three are obvious, but … Texas? That’s right, I’m keeping the Longhorns on my top tier even after Saturday’s result. Their defense keeps standing tall. Sure, Georgia scored 30 points, but four Texas turnovers continually set up the Bulldogs with short fields. Only one Georgia scoring drive traveled more than 34 yards.
Not many opponents could dissect Texas’ offensive line like Georgia did. Plus, quarterback Quinn Ewers is better than he showed. If Ewers regains his September form and matchups break Texas’ way, it can win it all. So can Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon. Together, they’re the teams to beat.
As Southern California, Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma implode, who’s getting fired?
None of the head coaches.
I understand frustrated fans want to “fire everybody!” in the face of a losing season, but that’s not realistic for these languishing blue bloods.
Let’s start with Michigan’s Sherrone Moore. He’s in Year 1. His buyout tops $18 million. He’ll get a second crack at this. To anyone realistic about Michigan’s personnel, the Wolverines’ 4-3 record suits the roster. Jim Harbaugh left Moore with a bleak quarterback situation. Moore must solve it quickly, as in, 2025.
Let’s move to Lincoln Riley. USC’s 3-4 record is a failure for a third-year coach who came at Riley’s price tag. Riley is 5-9 in his past 14 games. Comparatively, Florida’s Billy Napier and Arkansas’ Sam Pittman are 6-8 in their last 14. Two of those three coaches are on the hot seat, and Riley is the one who isn’t. Why? Follow the money. The Trojans padlocked their wagon to Riley. His buyout is not public record – USC, a private school, is not subject to open records laws – but it’s believed to be very, very expensive, much more so than that of Napier or Pittman.
Next, examine Oklahoma’s Brent Venables. To call the Sooners (4-3) an eyesore is to insult eyesores. Their offense is offensive. However, Oklahoma inexplicably awarded Venables a raise and an extension before this season, despite his middling first two seasons and the fact that nobody threatened to steal Venables away. The contract lunacy means a $45 million buyout protects Venables, so he gets to fire his offensive coordinator, rather than the Sooners firing him.
We arrive at Florida State last. That’s fitting. The Seminoles (1-6) are pitiful. Worse, they look disinterested. But, coach Mike Norvell leveraged a 13-1 2023 season and Alabama’s job opening into a sweet deal. His buyout at season’s end? Nearly $64 million. Fume on, ‘Noles fans, but Norvell’s yours.
A College Football Playoff committee’s disaster scenario
Somebody’s getting left out. That’s my prediction for Selection Sunday.
Not every Cinderella playoff contender will be left standing come December, but it’s still shaping up as an overcrowded bubble. The ultimate disaster scenario for the selection committee: Brigham Young and Iowa State roll into the Big 12 championship game undefeated, and one-loss Clemson beats undefeated Miami for the ACC title.
In such a scenario, the Big 12 and ACC could account for an at-large bid apiece, leaving just five at-large spots for the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame.
Uh-oh.
Yes, indeed, somebody’s getting left out.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
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